Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2A 0x2a92…675a other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$206 (+20%) realized +$206 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$133
14 days+$170
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$169
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.6% -2.6% 64% 64% +3.2%
≤30d 18 +17.5% +6.3% 72% 61% +5.3%
≤90d 18 +17.5% +6.3% 72% 61% +5.3%
all 18 +17.5% +6.3% 72% 61% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 61% +5.3%
10% -3.9% 61% -4.8%
15% -13.2% 56% -14.0%
20% -21.7% 39% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$56 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $119 +$54 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $147 +$70 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 +$53 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$16 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$92 +180%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$38 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$32 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$29 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$8 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $43 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $119 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $147 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 33¢ $79 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $75 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $84 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $54 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $73 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records