Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a91…9c50 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-8%) realized −$79 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$330
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$90
other 34% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -45.2% -50.4% 27% 27% -61.6%
≤30d 33 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -15.1%
≤90d 33 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -15.1%
all 33 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 42% -15.1%
10% -24.5% 36% -23.2%
15% -31.8% 36% -30.6%
20% -38.5% 33% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$38 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage19d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 36¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 36¢ 13¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$22 +112%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 +$11 +71%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 +$8 +45%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +96%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$54 +261%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$119 +231%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 +$43 +77%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $39 +$40 +101%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $71 +$14 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $54 +$80 +149%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$64 +104%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $70 +$81 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 +$87 +243%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $41 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $15 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $31 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 33h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 1¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 4d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $170 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $47 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $55 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.40 · official $59.72 (match) · 91 history records