Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2a8e…b084 weather 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%115W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$13
weather 39% −$92
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 58 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -10.8%
all 116 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$117 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses115 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage139d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $133 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 22 $133 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $132 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $132 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $84 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 24? May 23 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C or below on May 17? May 17 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 3? May 03 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 1? May 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 29? Apr 30 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Apr 29 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 Apr 27 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 25? Apr 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22? Apr 22 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 21? Apr 22 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 19? Apr 20 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 17? Apr 18 $122 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 16? Apr 16 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 15? Apr 15 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 13? Apr 14 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $143 −$117 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 Apr 11 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 10 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $137 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $231 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 8? Apr 08 $231 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on April 6? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 6? Apr 07 $211 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 5? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 5? Apr 06 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 4? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 1? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on April 2? Apr 03 $220 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $133 40h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $133 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $105 11d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $105 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $132 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $132 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $132 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $131 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $131 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $131 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $131 22d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $131 23d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 24d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $130 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $84 30d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $130 33d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $130 34d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C or below on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $130 42d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $130 54d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 56d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $129 58d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 BUY No 100¢ $129 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $129 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.67 · official $132.67 (match) · 298 history records