Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a8d…8922 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$219 (+8%) realized +$429 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$813
world 7% −$94
economics 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$352 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,055
Realized+$429
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 40¢ 58¢ $598 $882 +$284 (+48%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $188 $94 −$94 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $85 $78 −$7 (-8%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 19¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 42¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $463 −$454 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $256 −$250 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 36¢ $304 40m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 44¢ $305 46m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 17¢ $102 53m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 23¢ $96 58m
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $90 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $100 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 34¢ $273 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $256 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 42¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 32¢ $825 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 12¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $294 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $305 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 0¢ $100 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 0¢ $88 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $89 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,054.63 · official $1,175.24 · 16 history records