Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2a8c…fd3d sports 1035 markets active 2d ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70,658 (-17%) realized −$71,118 · open +$460
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%345W / 700L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$5,936est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25,859
7 days−$21,132
14 days−$22,618
30 days−$25,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$22,170
other 1% −$1,670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -46.8% -51.8% 14% 14% -65.7%
≤30d 306 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 32% -24.5%
≤90d 929 -20.0% -27.6% 33% 33% -20.4%
all 1045 -20.7% -28.3% 33% 32% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 32% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 31% -27.9%
15% -41.4% 27% -34.9%
20% -47.1% 25% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$534 vs −$335 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$1,715
Realized−$71,118
Unrealized+$460
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses345 / 700
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$5,936
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1045 / 1035
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$404
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1045 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 45¢ 62¢ $1,255 $1,715 +$460 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,212 −$1,212 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $531 −$531 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $465 −$465 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $800 −$800 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,432 −$1,432 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $1,283 −$1,283 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $988 −$988 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $875 −$875 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $640 −$640 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $322 −$322 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $1,281 −$1,281 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 17 $640 −$640 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $525 −$525 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs Jun 17 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group S Jun 17 $314 −$314 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $215 −$215 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Jun 17 $175 −$175 -100%
Nets vs. Heat Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $935 −$935 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 17 $819 −$819 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $475 −$475 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $695 −$695 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 64¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 54¢ $42 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 54¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 10¢ $26 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 16¢ $77 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 15¢ $27 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 80¢ $116 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 12¢ $36 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 12¢ $31 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 59¢ $111 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 63¢ $202 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $205 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $112 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $71 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 45¢ $102 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $101 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 15¢ $82 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 29¢ $175 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 32¢ $102 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 61¢ $111 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 60¢ $101 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 51¢ $208 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 39¢ $148 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 14¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 46¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 64¢ $202 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 52¢ $91 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 23¢ $41 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 27¢ $72 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 23¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,715.17 · official $1,715.17 (match) · 3500 history records