Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a8c…a1bf other 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$117 (+1%) realized +$184 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%60W / 110L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 614d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$1,382
crypto 28% −$1,286
other 18% −$501
world 15% −$1,551
tech 2% −$52
economics 1% +$8
finance 0% +$9
weather 0% $0
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.1% -20.5% 20% 20% -24.3%
≤30d 43 +29.8% +17.4% 37% 33% -43.0%
≤90d 57 +2.4% -7.3% 30% 26% -27.7%
all 170 -21.2% -28.7% 35% 26% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 26% -23.8%
10% -35.5% 19% -31.1%
15% -41.7% 16% -37.7%
20% -47.5% 15% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$41 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$1,306
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses60 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)170 / 189
History coverage614d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $300 $246 −$54 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+10%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $227 $153 −$74 (-33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $120 $132 +$12 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $150 $128 −$22 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $60 $93 +$33 (+56%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 −$42 -41%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 22 $43 −$19 -44%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $25 +$22 +89%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 22 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $405 −$62 -15%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $101 +$22 +21%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 13 $179 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $300 +$5 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$18 -18%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$3 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $143 −$5 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 +$34 +686%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $10 +$30 +300%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $16 +$107 +671%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 05 $40 +$101 +254%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 03 $159 −$5 -3%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? Jun 03 $55 +$11 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$6 +277%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,635 +$8 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 01 $8 +$24 +315%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1,390 +$87 +6%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 May 29 $143 −$21 -14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 26 $62 −$62 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? May 25 $21 −$19 -89%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 24 $1,382 −$1,340 -97%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $769 −$739 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $871 −$839 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $44 −$42 -96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $61 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $71 1h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $24 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $47 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $97 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $97 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 21h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 6d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $100 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 7d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $181 9d
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 9d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $25 9d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 9d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $244 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $15 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $184 10d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 2¢ $21 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 27¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,305.82 · official $1,305.82 (match) · 477 history records