Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a85…651f crypto 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%330W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$89
weather 10% +$68
sports 1% −$2
politics 1% −$19
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.4% +6.3% 71% 64% +7.3%
≤30d 31 +7.3% -2.9% 84% 32% +3.7%
≤90d 124 -4.6% -13.7% 86% 12% -8.2%
all 361 -1.4% -10.7% 91% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 10% -10.6%
10% -19.3% 5% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 3% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses330 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)361 / 361
History coverage150d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 361 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 −$14 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $36 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $55 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 +$60 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Twisted Minds PH vs TNC Pro Team (BO3) - MPL May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 16 $3 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Am May 15 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Grou May 15 $4 $0 +5%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 15 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 15 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 57¢ $27 45m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 64¢ $33 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 67¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 54¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 31¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 39¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 49¢ $10 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $63 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $20 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $36 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $96 28h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? BUY No 27¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? BUY No 38¢ $31 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $46 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 30¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 775 history records