Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a85…54c1
politics · 418 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$61 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$391
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses152 / 153
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions112
Markets (closed)305 / 418
History coverage53d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 112 History 305 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$17
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 91¢ 98¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Nicki Minaj perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 81¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? No 92¢ 92¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? No 85¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will SZA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 97¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ed Sheeran perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 96¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Daddy Yankee perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 45¢ 95¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+111%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 67¢ 91¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 44¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-52%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 41¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Sam Smith perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 95¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 93¢ 86¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? No 73¢ 60¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 69¢ 65¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $22 +$3 +14%
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh Jun 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Future perform "Wicked" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Future perform "Stick Talk" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $1 +$2 +122%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 12 $4 −$1 -21%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 2 weeks? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -81%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +16%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $7 +$12 +158%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$5 -31%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$6 +123%
Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $54 −$2 -4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $14 +$8 +58%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -10%
Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$4 -57%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Astralis qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$33
other 32% −$50
culture 8% −$9
tech 6% −$18
world 5% −$8
sports 4% −$13
crypto 2% +$18
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL No 78¢ $5 42m
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 54m
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Pitbull perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 93¢ $1 1h
Will Pitbull perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 3h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 5h
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 8h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 99¢ $2 10h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 96¢ $2 11h
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL No 29¢ $1 12h
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh SELL No 92¢ $7 12h
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh SELL No 92¢ $1 12h
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh BUY No 95¢ $2 12h
Will Nicki Minaj perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sho BUY No 99¢ $2 12h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 36¢ $1 13h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 99¢ $2 13h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 13h
Will Sam Smith perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 98¢ $1 13h
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 62¢ $1 15h
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL No 28¢ $1 15h
Will Calvin Harris perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s BUY No 97¢ $5 15h
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 94¢ $2 15h
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 31¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 22% -9.9%
≤30d 185 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 18% -14.4%
≤90d 305 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 21% -11.9%
all 305 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 21% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 21% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 13% -20.3%
15% -26.6% 10% -28.0%
20% -33.8% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.02 · official $388.99 (match) · 1527 history records