Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2a85…e8b9 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$10
crypto 7% +$2
sports 6% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -29.2% -35.9% 47% 41% -2.4%
≤30d 17 -29.2% -35.9% 47% 41% -2.4%
≤90d 27 -32.5% -38.9% 44% 41% -6.3%
all 73 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 49% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 49% -6.5%
10% -28.0% 44% -15.4%
15% -35.0% 41% -23.6%
20% -41.3% 33% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage171d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 $0 +26%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 $0 +38%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $2 +$2 +79%
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $2 +$2 +75%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Coventry City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $2 +$5 +270%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 $0 +15%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2 +$2 +108%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 01 $1 $0 +24%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $1 +$3 +270%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $1 $0 +39%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $1 +$3 +257%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 52d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 52d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.86 · official $17.86 (match) · 124 history records