Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a83…4806 politics 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,677 (-1%) realized −$1,677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%43W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,343per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$40
14 days−$74
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$124
other 36% +$806
sports 13% −$2,385
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 +0.6% -9.0% 12% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -8.7% -17.4% 10% 6% -11.1%
all 164 +2.2% -7.5% 26% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 12% -10.2%
10% -16.4% 12% -18.8%
15% -24.5% 10% -26.7%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,076) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$28 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1,111
Realized−$1,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses43 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,343
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $949 $948 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $163 $163 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,051 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $230 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,089 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,367 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,629 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,548 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,353 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $949 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4,149 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $3,070 −$5 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $940 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,114 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $871 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,312 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $886 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $63 +$61 +97%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,133 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,411 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,939 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $76 +$60 +79%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $559 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $44 +$28 +65%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $458 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,041 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $609 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,155 −$3 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $902 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,792 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $72 +$36 +50%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,309 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $764 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $949 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $625 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $626 4h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $757 43h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $759 45h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $810 46h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $811 47h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $850 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $851 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $861 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $941 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $944 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $947 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $949 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $871 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $872 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $871 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $872 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $946 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $948 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $838 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $839 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $938 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $940 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $878 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $879 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $804 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,111.35 · official $1,111.35 (match) · 550 history records