Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a83…7d16 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,806 (-78%) realized −$1,856 · open −$950
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1,779
politics 32% −$1,088
world 6% −$187
finance 5% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -36.3% -42.4% 12% 12% -85.7%
all 8 -36.3% -42.4% 12% 12% -85.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 12% -85.7%
10% -47.9% 12% -87.1%
15% -52.9% 12% -88.3%
20% -57.6% 12% -89.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$307 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$1,856
Unrealized−$950
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage103d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $41 $36 −$5 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $635 $34 −$600 (-95%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $46 $24 −$23 (-49%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes $197 $10 −$187 (-95%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $135 $8 −$127 (-94%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by May 31? May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 01 $136 −$136 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 30 $11 −$10 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $68 +$278 +409%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 20 $106 −$35 -33%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 20 $1,042 −$1,042 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $288 −$288 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $559 −$440 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 46h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 24d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $0 24d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $3 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $7 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.16 · official $204.16 (match) · 58 history records