Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a7b…ccda sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$28
crypto 4% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +133.8% +111.5% 100% 100% +111.5%
≤30d 6 +61.0% +45.6% 50% 50% +27.8%
≤90d 30 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 33% -7.5%
all 30 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 33% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 33% -7.5%
10% -23.4% 33% -16.3%
15% -30.8% 33% -24.4%
20% -37.6% 33% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage51d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $27 +$37 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $19 −$19 -96%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship May 24 $6 +$13 +227%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 24 $36 −$31 -86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $20 +$57 +291%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $31 +$101 +325%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $26 +$30 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $5 +$15 +291%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $27 +$15 +55%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $5 +$7 +144%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou Apr 30 $4 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $2 +$2 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $64 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $19 27d
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship SELL Wildcard 99¢ $14 27d
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship SELL Wildcard 92¢ $6 27d
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship BUY Wildcard 29¢ $6 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Legacy 25¢ $20 28d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G BUY Legacy 11¢ $5 29d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G BUY Legacy 31¢ $5 29d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo BUY GamerLegion 11¢ $15 34d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 6¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $10 35d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs SELL GamerLegion 41¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY GamerLegion 42¢ $5 35d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Legacy 33¢ $31 35d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $31 36d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY FURIA 43¢ $20 36d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $5 36d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B SELL Legacy 74¢ $57 37d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Legacy 34¢ $26 37d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY B8 1¢ $1 38d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY paiN 22¢ $5 38d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY B8 11¢ $5 38d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Liquid 20¢ $5 38d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL paiN 100¢ $20 39d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Passion UA 36¢ $5 39d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BUY GamerLegion 24¢ $5 39d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL BetBoom Team 18¢ $11 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records