Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a7b…5f1c other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 23% −$20
politics 8% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
culture 5% −$6
world 5% −$3
tech 2% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 1% -9.7%
all 250 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage136d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $131 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $300 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $913 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $689 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $361 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $213 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $253 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $314 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 2h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 4h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 9h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 11h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 11h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 11h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 13h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 18h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 19h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $60 20h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 21h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $61 23h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $61 24h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 27h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 28h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 33h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 35h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 39h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 41h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.98 · official $59.98 (match) · 1399 history records