Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a7b…c30d crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$219 (-1%) realized −$218 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%59W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$48
14 days−$117
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$156
world 27% −$222
other 19% +$26
sports 15% −$202
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.1% -1.3% 69% 31% -10.5%
≤30d 39 +9.4% -1.0% 69% 26% -10.6%
≤90d 46 +8.1% -2.2% 74% 22% -10.2%
all 73 +5.2% -4.9% 81% 15% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 15% -10.9%
10% -14.0% 8% -19.4%
15% -22.3% 7% -27.2%
20% -29.9% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$54 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses59 / 14
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage210d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $293 −$5 -2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $323 +$7 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $388 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $383 +$2 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$82 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $288 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $298 +$2 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $72 −$71 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $552 −$214 -39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $181 +$19 +11%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 +$41 +482%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$11 +13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 +$25 +46%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $294 +$28 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $219 +$11 +5%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $199 +$21 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $69 −$55 -80%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 +$15 +20%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$95 -47%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$69 +265%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $146 +$3 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $192 −$27 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $183 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $158 +$21 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $154 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $150 +$9 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $143 −$7 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $147 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $148 +$2 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $145 +$3 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $293 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 28 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 23 $275 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $279 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $415 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $277 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $5 +$2 +33%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $460 −$226 -49%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $236 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $288 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $293 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $323 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $28 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $388 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $386 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $361 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $23 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No $9 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $300 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $264 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $25 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $297 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $298 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $338 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $552 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 93¢ $92 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $79 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes $7 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.71 · official $58.77 (match) · 260 history records