Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a79…9064 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$510 (+31%) realized +$510 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$564
other 26% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +52.2% +37.7% 45% 45% +20.3%
≤30d 11 +52.2% +37.7% 45% 45% +20.3%
≤90d 11 +52.2% +37.7% 45% 45% +20.3%
all 11 +52.2% +37.7% 45% 45% +20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.7% 45% +20.3%
10% +24.6% 36% +8.8%
15% +12.5% 36% -1.7%
20% +1.5% 36% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$22 · ×5.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.78 per $1 lost it wins $4.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$510
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 +$11 +16%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $28 +$56 +202%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $815 +$490 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $169 −$3 -2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$66 -65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $196 −$8 -4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $14 $0 -3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $35 +$36 +105%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $66 −$54 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $83 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $71 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi SELL 42¢ $83 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 87¢ $1,290 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $699 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $166 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $35 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $169 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 11h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $101 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $174 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $181 21h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $28 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $14 22h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 51¢ $15 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $15 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $14 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $15 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Tür BUY 8¢ $11 26h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Canad BUY 26¢ $48 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $11 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Re BUY 37¢ $49 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $35 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $66 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records