Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a77…8b53 sports 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,480 (-6%) realized −$3,879 · open +$399
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%261W / 159L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day66.2pace
Fees−$471est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$334
14 days−$653
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,567
other 7% −$1,789
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.9% -3.3% 71% 71% +6.5%
≤30d 40 -5.0% -14.0% 70% 62% -10.6%
≤90d 420 +3.3% -6.6% 62% 49% -15.0%
all 420 +3.3% -6.6% 62% 49% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 49% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 32% -23.1%
15% -23.7% 19% -30.6%
20% -31.2% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$100 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$3,879
Unrealized+$399
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses261 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$471
Open positions1
Markets (closed)420 / 421
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$147
Trades / day66.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 0¢ 66¢ $0 $399 +$399 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $315 −$315 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $236 +$64 +27%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $20 +$20 +99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $290 +$110 +38%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $283 +$77 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $734 +$382 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $997 −$987 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $668 −$652 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $2,103 −$1,923 -91%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $986 +$104 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $304 −$116 -38%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) May 31 $336 −$333 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $620 +$222 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $231 −$230 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $642 −$627 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $2,067 +$141 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $1,202 +$141 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $825 +$710 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $332 −$329 -99%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 28 $336 +$97 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $634 +$427 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $512 +$123 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $673 −$626 -93%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $814 +$323 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula May 26 $669 +$124 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1,169 −$1,158 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $1,992 +$995 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $608 +$58 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 26 $2,660 +$481 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala May 26 $334 +$32 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Emma Navarro vs Janice Tjen May 26 $1,031 +$133 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 26 $927 +$127 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 25 $1,717 +$1,299 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $331 +$101 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $435 +$163 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 24 $829 +$214 +26%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $325 +$74 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic May 24 $669 +$114 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $312 +$71 +23%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Eva Lys May 16 $1,056 −$441 -42%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $445 −$440 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $331 +$113 +34%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $328 −$262 -80%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca May 09 $398 −$376 -94%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci May 09 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $336 +$201 +60%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce May 09 $294 +$39 +13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $402 +$63 +16%
Gwangju FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $1,231 +$203 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $370 1h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $37 4h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $194 4h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $3 4h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $12 4h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $56 4h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $13 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 78¢ $236 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $64 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $191 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $4 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $50 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $4 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $45 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 90¢ $2 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 70¢ $283 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $290 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,117 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $733 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $11 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $659 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $327 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 20¢ $4 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 20¢ $664 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Marta Kostyuk 5¢ $180 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 56¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.00 · official $399.00 (match) · 3500 history records