Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a75…bc59 crypto 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+9%) realized +$25 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%53W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$28
weather 29% +$58
sports 6% $0
other 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +4.1% -5.8% 52% 43% -8.9%
≤30d 101 +4.1% -5.8% 52% 43% -8.9%
≤90d 101 +4.1% -5.8% 52% 43% -8.9%
all 101 +4.1% -5.8% 52% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 43% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 38% -17.6%
15% -23.0% 28% -25.6%
20% -30.6% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses53 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $40 $72 +$32 (+80%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 46¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $21 +$28 +136%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$7 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$7 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.35 · official $94.36 (match) · 260 history records