Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a6e…c5c1
weather · 121 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$8 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses60 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage62d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? No 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Japan Japan 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 22? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? No 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11? No 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26? No 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on April 24? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$10 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% −$27
weather 37% +$1
sports 4% +$15
other 1% +$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +15.2% +4.3% 59% 46% -6.6%
≤30d 71 +15.2% +4.3% 59% 46% -6.6%
≤90d 121 +12.6% +1.8% 50% 42% -11.0%
all 121 +12.6% +1.8% 50% 42% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 42% -11.0%
10% -7.9% 32% -19.5%
15% -16.8% 28% -27.3%
20% -25.0% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records