Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a6d…74ee other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,737 (+20%) realized +$1,759 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$640
7 days+$640
14 days+$640
30 days+$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% +$1,724
other 21% −$12
sports 2% +$10
crypto 1% +$19
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.9% +7.6% 75% 50% +5.2%
≤30d 7 +51.7% +37.3% 71% 43% +6.5%
≤90d 7 +51.7% +37.3% 71% 43% +6.5%
all 13 -0.9% -10.3% 46% 31% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 31% +12.4%
10% -18.9% 31% +1.7%
15% -26.7% 23% -8.2%
20% -33.9% 15% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$47 · ×7.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.38 per $1 lost it wins $6.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1,478
Realized+$1,759
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)13 / 30
History coverage115d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $200 $257 +$57 (+29%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $238 $237 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $194 $169 −$25 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $97 $124 +$26 (+27%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $141 $105 −$37 (-26%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $72 $75 +$3 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $64 +$19 (+43%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $115 $60 −$55 (-48%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $46 +$19 (+72%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $21 −$3 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $2 −$11 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $428 +$36 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 +$11 +32%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $1,696 +$627 +37%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $1,767 −$34 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $94 +$275 +293%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 06 $1,141 +$27 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 25 $1,632 +$1,102 +68%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 25 $53 −$43 -81%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 25 $51 −$38 -74%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 08 $191 −$164 -86%
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $139 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $60 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $99 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $111 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $35 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $428 20h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $889 40h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $1,568 40h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 94¢ $96 43h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 94¢ $1,403 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $145 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 80¢ $700 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 25¢ $94 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $155 72d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 72d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL No 93¢ $194 72d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $115 72d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $200 72d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 72d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 72d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 72d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 72d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 72d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,477.90 · official $1,477.90 (match) · 231 history records