Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a6d…12da other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-16%) realized −$137 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%14W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$201
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$31
other 41% −$45
crypto 4% −$35
world 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -20.4% -28.0% 13% 13% -34.5%
≤30d 92 -12.5% -20.9% 15% 15% -23.8%
≤90d 92 -12.5% -20.9% 15% 15% -23.8%
all 92 -12.5% -20.9% 15% 15% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 15% -23.8%
10% -28.4% 15% -31.1%
15% -35.3% 15% -37.8%
20% -41.7% 15% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$8 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses14 / 78
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 55¢ 48¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $50 +$37 +76%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $25 +$41 +167%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $25 +$38 +153%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $16 +$52 +332%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$75 +1505%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$25 +497%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$12 +246%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 +$55 +1105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Moisés Ramírez: 4+ saves Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $87 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $25 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $25 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 55¢ $25 9h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $25 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 46¢ $67 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $16 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $25 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 44h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 44h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 44h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $49 47h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.07 · official $45.07 (match) · 194 history records