Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2a6c…9f19 crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$941 (+8%) realized +$937 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 31L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,679
7 days−$1,104
14 days−$228
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.4% -28.0% 57% 50% -42.1%
≤30d 73 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 51% -9.5%
≤90d 73 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 51% -9.5%
all 73 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 51% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 51% -9.5%
10% -30.5% 40% -18.1%
15% -37.2% 27% -26.0%
20% -43.3% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$119 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$937
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage28d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$22 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $316 +$60 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $389 +$60 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $537 +$455 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $793 +$453 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $274 −$274 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $734 +$56 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $157 −$16 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $215 +$175 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $535 +$333 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $536 +$373 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $323 +$281 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $320 +$309 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $107 +$47 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $160 +$24 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $214 +$141 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $108 +$159 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $394 +$89 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $133 +$37 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $107 +$58 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $107 +$53 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $277 −$64 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $107 +$50 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $214 +$95 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $212 +$48 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $132 +$32 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 2¢ $18 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 3¢ $22 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,049 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 42¢ $540 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 78¢ $74 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 47¢ $269 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 55¢ $268 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 83¢ $315 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 80¢ $316 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 69¢ $29 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 58¢ $321 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 60¢ $177 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 61¢ $267 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 31¢ $381 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No 17¢ $274 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 3¢ $39 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY No 51¢ $752 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 89¢ $734 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY No 55¢ $536 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.49 · official $24.49 (match) · 189 history records