Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a6c…fef9
world · 37 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage480d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $78 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $57 −$5 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $99 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $46 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $47 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $36 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $90 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 +$1 +70%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $492 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $495 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $251 −$6 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $276 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $276 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Providence vs. Georgetown Mar 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$19
world 34% −$6
politics 17% +$1
other 14% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $13 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $36 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $27 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $27 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $35 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $31 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 25 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 34 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 3% -9.8%
all 35 -3.8% -13.0% 37% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -10.2%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.8%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.7%
20% -35.9% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records