Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a64…a3a7 world 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$26
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$38
other 25% +$7
sports 12% +$13
economics 9% −$5
politics 4% +$4
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -0.5% -10.0% 34% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 49 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 6% -9.8%
all 102 +1.3% -8.4% 46% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 9% -9.7%
10% -17.1% 4% -18.4%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 55
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage483d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $230 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $129 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $115 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $294 −$6 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $126 +$2 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $117 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $129 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $118 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $168 −$24 -14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $118 −$12 -10%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $122 +$13 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $72 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $185 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $151 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $173 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $142 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $285 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $6 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $293 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $156 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $71 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $128 −$8 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $144 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $158 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $434 $0 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 06 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $221 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $146 +$6 +4%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $59 +$2 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,011 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $808 −$3 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $969 −$15 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $923 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $322 +$4 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $29 +$5 +18%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $85 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $115 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $102 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $13 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $115 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $12 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $114 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $115 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $47 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $128 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $126 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $127 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $127 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $115 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $96 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $101 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $86 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $129 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $129 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $116 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records