Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a63…f3ad crypto 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,150 (-14%) realized −$1,123 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%53W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$484
14 days−$1,022
30 days−$1,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,690
sports 2% −$80
other 0% −$14
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% −$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -43.0% -48.4% 31% 24% -36.8%
≤30d 117 -21.0% -28.5% 27% 23% -43.9%
≤90d 233 -19.6% -27.3% 23% 21% -29.8%
all 233 -19.6% -27.3% 23% 21% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 21% -29.8%
10% -34.2% 20% -36.5%
15% -40.6% 18% -42.6%
20% -46.4% 17% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$34 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,123
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses53 / 180
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage70d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$17 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$53 +503%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $58 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$25 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $58 +$96 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$35 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $113 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $113 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 714 history records