Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a5f…7db4 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 433d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%35W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$17
politics 10% $0
other 9% $0
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 27 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 46 -6.3% -15.3% 76% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -10.5%
10% -23.4% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

433d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses35 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage433d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? May 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? May 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 15 $42 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Apr 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 23? Mar 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? Mar 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? Mar 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? Mar 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 12? Jan 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 20? Jan 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 5? Dec 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 05 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $114k November 3-9? Nov 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $50 −$1 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 03 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $40 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $40 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $40 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $40 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $40 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $40 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? BUY No 99¢ $42 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $42 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $42 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.88 · official $39.88 (match) · 91 history records