Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2a5f…e226 sports 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 502d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$556 (-5%) realized −$531 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%151W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$268
14 days−$320
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$219
sports 39% −$122
politics 8% −$187
crypto 3% +$7
world 2% +$21
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.4% -16.2% 71% 46% -24.8%
≤30d 78 -14.0% -22.1% 67% 44% -17.5%
≤90d 125 -10.0% -18.6% 66% 45% -12.4%
all 258 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -13.0%
10% -27.3% 30% -21.3%
15% -34.3% 21% -28.9%
20% -40.8% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses151 / 107
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)258 / 260
History coverage502d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $88 $67 −$21 (-24%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $176 +$35 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $75 +$55 +73%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 23 $277 −$203 -73%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$18 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 +$19 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $73 +$27 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $16 +$6 +38%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $95 +$7 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $189 −$187 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$6 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 +$9 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $212 +$12 +6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $63 +$5 +8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 +$7 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $53 +$40 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 −$6 -15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $39 +$6 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $45 +$13 +29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $107 +$36 +34%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $45 +$23 +50%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $299 −$248 -83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 13 $202 +$42 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$53 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $200 +$61 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$3 +36%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $94 +$7 +8%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $100 47m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 85¢ $60 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 97¢ $130 47m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $31 48m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 63¢ $15 57m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $15 58m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 63¢ $60 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $25 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $15 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 89¢ $19 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $22 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 93¢ $42 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $12 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $19 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $12 5d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 72¢ $16 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $21 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $15 5d
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY No 61¢ $10 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $50 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 6d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $20 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $95 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.31 · official $67.31 (match) · 647 history records