Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a5e…5c31 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3 (+20%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$1
sports 40% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +32.4% +19.8% 70% 70% +20.0%
≤30d 10 +32.4% +19.8% 70% 70% +20.0%
≤90d 10 +32.4% +19.8% 70% 70% +20.0%
all 10 +32.4% +19.8% 70% 70% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 70% +20.0%
10% +8.4% 70% +8.5%
15% -2.1% 70% -2.0%
20% -11.7% 70% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 47m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 35h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 24 history records