Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a58…b808 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$601 (-3%) realized −$1,210 · open +$609
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$2,078
other 31% −$1,062
world 24% +$1,509
crypto 1% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 39% -21.6%
≤30d 54 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 39% -21.6%
≤90d 54 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 39% -21.6%
all 54 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 39% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 39% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 37% -29.1%
15% -29.6% 30% -36.0%
20% -36.5% 26% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -52% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$247 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4,936
Realized−$1,210
Unrealized+$609
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions11
Markets (closed)54 / 65
History coverage6d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 45¢ 62¢ $1,353 $1,863 +$510 (+38%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 58¢ 54¢ $768 $708 −$60 (-8%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 36¢ 36¢ $572 $564 −$8 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 19¢ 30¢ $334 $549 +$215 (+64%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $380 $392 +$12 (+3%)
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $317 $372 +$55 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $200 $278 +$78 (+39%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $82 $93 +$11 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $212 $60 −$152 (-72%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+25%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $75 $16 −$59 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $55 +$358 +652%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $460 +$422 +92%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $220 +$531 +242%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $49 +$101 +206%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $396 −$396 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $734 +$231 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $220 +$100 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $131 +$169 +129%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $300 +$611 +204%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $135 −$50 -37%
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $76 −$2 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $200 +$200 +100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $99 +$201 +203%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $309 +$96 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $412 +$88 +21%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,165 +$1,187 +102%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $518 −$178 -34%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $255 −$255 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $460 −$460 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $90 −$17 -19%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $550 +$450 +82%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 19 $129 −$110 -85%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $391 −$195 -50%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,092 +$405 +37%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$200 +100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $120 +$80 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $360 +$100 +28%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $305 −$305 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $340 −$340 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $808 −$808 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $358 −$358 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 14m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $16 14m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 14m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $8 14m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $34 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $6 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $34 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $14 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $34 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $34 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $32 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $12 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $93 19m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $420 34m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $933 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $583 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 2h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $178 3h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 50¢ $3 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $2,000 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $499 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Under 66¢ $163 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $382 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $251 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6h
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,935.81 · official $4,935.81 (match) · 417 history records