Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2a57…7dcb crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+7%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$54
crypto 47% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 62% -4.0%
≤30d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 62% -4.0%
≤90d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 62% -4.0%
all 32 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 62% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 62% -4.0%
10% -17.8% 44% -13.2%
15% -25.7% 34% -21.6%
20% -33.0% 22% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$7 +173%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$11 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$12 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$12 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.56 · official $59.57 (match) · 59 history records