Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a56…72bb other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%31W / 59L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$43
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$35
other 22% +$6
politics 11% +$1
sports 11% $0
economics 2% −$8
finance 1% +$7
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 30 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 35 -6.3% -15.2% 31% 9% -9.4%
all 90 -2.6% -11.9% 34% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 4% -9.4%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.0%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage454d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $147 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $147 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $147 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $148 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $107 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $290 −$12 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $664 −$10 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $144 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $144 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $145 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$4 +68%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $155 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $374 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $635 −$26 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $565 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $151 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $177 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $257 −$3 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $67 +$28 +42%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $64 +$7 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $37 −$14 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $148 −$10 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $160 +$4 +3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $291 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $948 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $180 −$8 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $916 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,001 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $12 +$7 +52%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $128 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $19 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $147 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $147 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $147 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $147 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $147 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $148 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $148 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $51 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $95 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $147 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $86 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $86 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $132 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $110 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $101 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $61 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $61 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $71 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records