Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a54…fee0 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$4
other 8% $0
crypto 5% −$3
sports 4% +$2
politics 4% $0
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 15 -3.4% -12.6% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 15 -3.4% -12.6% 27% 0% -10.1%
all 37 -8.4% -17.1% 35% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 3% -10.1%
10% -25.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -32.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -38.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage471d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $8 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $30 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -46%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $1 $0 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $29 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $31 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $28 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $21 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $30 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $30 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $8 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $9 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $5 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $6 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $4 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $32 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $9 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.53 · official $29.53 (match) · 121 history records