Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2a52…5e73 crypto 1414 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%923W / 491L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$40
14 days−$105
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$66
other 4% −$30
weather 3% −$25
sports 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -15.8% -23.8% 46% 38% -24.8%
≤30d 1145 -7.3% -16.1% 63% 45% -17.9%
≤90d 1414 -4.9% -13.9% 65% 48% -12.4%
all 1414 -4.9% -13.9% 65% 48% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 48% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 31% -20.8%
15% -29.7% 18% -28.4%
20% -36.6% 8% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses923 / 491
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1414 / 1414
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1414 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3449 history records