Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a51…f305
other · 114 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$578 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$792 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$527
Realized−$792
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses41 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 114
History coverage61d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 5 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,086
7 days−$1,137
14 days−$1,084
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $228 $215 −$13 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $111 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $105 $103 −$2 (-2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $550 −$550 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $93 +$383 +411%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $340 −$340 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $454 −$454 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $357 +$403 +113%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $153 +$115 +75%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $26 +$37 +146%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $205 −$205 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $57 +$143 +248%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $710 +$319 +45%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $339 +$289 +85%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $611 +$412 +67%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $94 +$45 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $98 +$104 +106%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco vs. Burundi: O/U 3.5 May 26 $58 +$85 +146%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$168 +646%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $24 +$43 +179%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 +$21 +85%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $39 +$36 +93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $45 +$53 +119%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $28 −$28 -100%
AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $173 +$127 +73%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 16 $26 +$140 +550%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $46 +$54 +119%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$189
sports 39% −$623
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $108 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $113 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $234 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $175 14h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $93 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $93 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $375 15h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $255 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $340 18h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $454 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $357 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 45h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 47h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 47h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $153 2d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $87 3d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $26 5d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 5d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $205 6d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $57 10d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 24¢ $206 10d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 58¢ $204 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 68¢ $710 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $339 15d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 67¢ $94 17d
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $98 17d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $200 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 31% -47.0%
≤30d 48 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 40% -14.4%
≤90d 109 +5.7% -4.3% 38% 38% -15.1%
all 109 +5.7% -4.3% 38% 38% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 38% -15.1%
10% -13.5% 38% -23.2%
15% -21.8% 38% -30.6%
20% -29.5% 34% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.87 · official $526.87 (match) · 232 history records