Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a51…9c22 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$232 (-57%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$237
other 27% +$48
crypto 8% −$10
culture 1% −$5
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +63.2% +47.6% 100% 100% +46.4%
≤30d 5 +30.5% +18.1% 80% 80% +38.6%
≤90d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 35% -57.0%
all 26 -23.2% -30.5% 46% 35% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 35% -56.5%
10% -37.1% 31% -60.6%
15% -43.2% 31% -64.4%
20% -48.8% 19% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage102d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 +$24 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$7 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 19 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +5%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 25 $75 −$74 -98%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 25 $76 −$74 -97%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 25 $46 −$46 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 23 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 22 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 22 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 19 $2 +$2 +87%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $5 $0 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $65 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 20h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 77d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $4 83d
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 85d
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? SELL Yes $1 85d
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? SELL Yes $1 85d
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? SELL Yes $1 85d
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? SELL Yes $0 85d
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? SELL Yes $0 85d
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 85d
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $10 86d
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $10 86d
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $15 86d
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $15 86d
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $10 86d
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $10 86d
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $20 86d
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $20 86d
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes $2 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 98 history records