Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a4f…e347 other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,490 (-2%) realized −$1,490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$972per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$82
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$49
politics 38% −$42
sports 16% −$1,427
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -9.9% -18.5% 11% 5% -10.4%
≤90d 94 -1.8% -11.2% 10% 6% -11.0%
all 95 -1.8% -11.2% 9% 6% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -11.0%
10% -19.7% 6% -19.5%
15% -27.4% 6% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,156) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$1,490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage91d
Avg bet$972
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $222 $223 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $387 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,421 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $621 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,451 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $754 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $293 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $511 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $2,475 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $514 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $42 +$19 +46%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $30 +$27 +90%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 08 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,194 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $324 5m
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $324 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $479 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $480 5h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $348 27h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $349 30h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $387 44h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $387 47h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $480 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $480 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $357 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $358 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $223 4d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $608 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $609 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $505 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $506 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $665 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $666 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $620 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $621 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $619 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $620 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $611 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $612 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $527 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $527 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $709 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $710 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $755 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.50 · official $222.50 (match) · 282 history records