Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a4f…f2c8 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$20
politics 32% −$13
sports 6% +$57
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 108 +4.0% -5.9% 9% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 4% -9.5%
10% -14.9% 4% -18.1%
15% -23.1% 3% -26.0%
20% -30.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×15.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage119d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $285 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $227 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $298 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $260 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $314 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $323 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $272 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $317 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $320 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $321 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 12 $326 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $242 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $232 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 25h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $257 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $257 25d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 25d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 28d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 28d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 33d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $278 36d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $278 44d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $227 45d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $227 45d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $251 46d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $251 46d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $219 46d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $219 46d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 47d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 47d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $298 47d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $298 47d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $279 47d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $279 47d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $267 47d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $267 48d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $289 48d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $289 48d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 356 history records