Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

2A 0x2a4f…e631 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$17 (+25%) realized +$16 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+2.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+12.9%	+2.1%	50%	50%	+25.7%
≤30d	2	+12.9%	+2.1%	50%	50%	+25.7%
≤90d	2	+12.9%	+2.1%	50%	50%	+25.7%
all	2	+12.9%	+2.1%	50%	50%	+25.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.1%	50%	+25.7%
10%	-7.6%	50%	+13.7%
15%	-16.6%	50%	+2.7%
20%	-24.7%	50%	-7.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$7 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$16

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Over	49¢	50¢	$26	$26	+$1 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$13	−$7	-56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$29	+$24	+81%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$26	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	18¢	$5	2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	19¢	$1	2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$13	3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$53	15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$29	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.39 · official $26.39 (match) · 6 history records