Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a4d…3223 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (320 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$779 (-28%) realized −$779 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day319.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,039
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (320 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 39% -43.1%
≤30d 31 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 39% -43.1%
≤90d 31 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 39% -43.1%
all 31 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 39% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover319.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 39% -43.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 35% -48.6%
15% -38.7% 35% -53.6%
20% -44.7% 35% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$111 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$779
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day319.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $62 +$104 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$33 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$10 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$18 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $470 −$470 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $253 +$219 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $134 +$117 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $62 +$54 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$28 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$7 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $207 +$246 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $175 −$159 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 523 history records