Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2a4c…0d95 sports 483 markets active 11h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$341 (-15%) realized −$340 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%173W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$77
14 days−$198
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$233
sports 33% −$84
weather 14% −$50
other 3% −$2
world 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -8.7% -17.4% 32% 25% -18.0%
≤30d 388 -10.2% -18.7% 35% 26% -21.1%
≤90d 388 -10.2% -18.7% 35% 26% -21.1%
all 477 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 28% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 28% -24.0%
10% -27.9% 21% -31.3%
15% -34.8% 16% -37.9%
20% -41.2% 12% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$340
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses173 / 304
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)477 / 483
History coverage133d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Algeria 85¢ 85¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 74¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -88%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $5 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 34h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 6¢ $1 36h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $5 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $5 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 77¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $2 5d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Spurs 53¢ $2 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 60¢ $2 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $2 5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 64¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 66¢ $2 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 22¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 52¢ $2 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 58¢ $1 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.85 · official $9.85 (match) · 2038 history records