Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a4b…41d5 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$103 (-9%) realized −$104 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$48
other 33% −$101
sports 15% +$12
crypto 8% +$1
tech 4% +$8
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 0% 0% -27.6%
≤30d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 0% 0% -27.6%
≤90d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 0% 0% -27.6%
all 30 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 33% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 33% -21.6%
10% -32.1% 20% -29.1%
15% -38.6% 17% -35.9%
20% -44.6% 13% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage557d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $122 −$25 -21%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $116 −$22 -19%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $31 +$32 +104%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 30 $32 +$21 +67%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 25 $24 +$7 +30%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $33 +$12 +37%
League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. 100 Thieves Sep 07 $11 −$11 -100%
BLAST Bounty: Complexity vs. HEROIC Aug 11 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $25 −$6 -25%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $18 −$4 -25%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $22 −$4 -20%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $23 −$6 -25%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 08 $8 +$1 +14%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +117%
Record low border encounters in March? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-01? Apr 25 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-03-06? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 06 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 31 $14 −$3 -20%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 12 $110 −$9 -9%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 11 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $97 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $61 27h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $94 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $122 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $116 2d
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 168d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY No 47¢ $42 168d
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-01-03? BUY No 49¢ $31 169d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-03? BUY No 39¢ $22 169d
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 60¢ $32 176d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 99¢ $32 178d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 76¢ $24 200d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $24 206d
Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-24? BUY No 42¢ $21 209d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 212d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? BUY Yes 69¢ $33 221d
League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. 100 Thieves BUY 100 Thieves 25¢ $11 287d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $19 317d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $25 317d
BLAST Bounty: Complexity vs. HEROIC BUY HEROIC 89¢ $100 317d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $13 317d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $18 317d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $17 317d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $23 317d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $18 317d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $22 317d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 379d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.45 · official $187.45 (match) · 70 history records