Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2a49…737a sports 1114 markets active 0h ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+1%) realized +$205 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%714W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$92
14 days+$64
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$139
other 16% +$41
crypto 11% −$85
world 1% +$69
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 60% -20.4%
≤30d 212 -5.9% -14.9% 58% 52% -4.5%
≤90d 895 -8.7% -17.4% 64% 52% -11.6%
all 1107 -8.7% -17.4% 64% 52% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 52% -9.4%
10% -25.3% 32% -18.1%
15% -32.5% 19% -26.0%
20% -39.1% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses714 / 393
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1107 / 1114
History coverage360d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 61¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 52¢ 80¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+55%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 280 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$9 +127%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +188%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$27 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $115 −$94 -81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -35%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $2 $0 +30%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$8 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $9 +$3 +28%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Daniel Merida Aguila Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $3 +$1 +47%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 +$24 +66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -86%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $60 +$14 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 13m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 13m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 14m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 1h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 82¢ $4 2h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 87¢ $3 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 8h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Raphael Perot 87¢ $3 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 8h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 82¢ $3 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 18h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Felix Gill 68¢ $1 18h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 68¢ $1 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 24h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 56¢ $3 30h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $4 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.35 · official $104.35 (match) · 3178 history records