Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a47…aa53 crypto 632 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 574d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,615 (-13%) realized −$4,615 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%259W / 373L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$4,972
other 22% +$100
sports 1% −$83
world 1% −$1
economics 1% −$7
politics 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +55.3% +40.5% 38% 38% -14.8%
≤30d 21 +3.5% -6.3% 29% 29% -19.8%
≤90d 97 -23.6% -30.9% 31% 31% -11.5%
all 632 -7.2% -16.0% 41% 35% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 35% -22.0%
10% -24.0% 25% -29.5%
15% -31.4% 20% -36.3%
20% -38.1% 16% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses259 / 373
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)632 / 632
History coverage574d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 632 Trades
no open positions (272 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$25 +1115%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$11 +19%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$38 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 15 $97 −$2 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$10 +156%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 20 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 16? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 12? May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 10 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $21 −$11 -54%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? May 07 $20 +$3 +16%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $257 +$31 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on May 5? May 06 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5? May 05 $14 +$5 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 05 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 18? Apr 18 $12 +$12 +101%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 18? Apr 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 17? Apr 17 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17? Apr 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 16? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $20 +$20 +102%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? Apr 15 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15? Apr 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 15? Apr 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 14? Apr 14 $25 +$21 +85%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 14? Apr 14 $23 +$20 +88%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14? Apr 14 $45 −$33 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 19h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL No 90¢ $62 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 28h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL No 22¢ $1 29h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL No 22¢ $14 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $36 29h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL No 19¢ $26 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL No 17¢ $8 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 19¢ $0 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 19¢ $34 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 18¢ $14 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 35¢ $10 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 43¢ $13 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 32h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $41 32h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 34h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 34h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3417 history records