Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a45…1447 world 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 20% $0
politics 16% $0
economics 7% $0
culture 7% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 22 +1.5% -8.2% 32% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 22 +1.5% -8.2% 32% 5% -9.6%
all 55 +0.6% -9.0% 29% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage278d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $44 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 +$1 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
"Gabby’s Dollhouse" grosses higher than "One Battle After Another" ope Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 28 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $30 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 23 $26 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $4 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $31 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $31 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $16 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $13 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $29 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records