Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2a43…b25f world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$7
world 25% −$3
sports 16% +$7
other 12% +$3
culture 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.0% -10.5% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 24 +24.6% +12.7% 21% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 35 +73.9% +57.3% 20% 6% -9.4%
all 53 +49.9% +35.7% 30% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.7% 6% -9.3%
10% +22.7% 6% -18.0%
15% +10.8% 6% -25.9%
20% -0.0% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage303d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 79¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $105 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $28 −$2 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $107 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $107 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $103 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $204 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $107 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $196 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $96 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $108 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 -3%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $17 $0 -1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $162 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $157 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $128 +$5 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $179 +$11 +6%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $637 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $37 −$1 -4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $639 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $33 $0 +0%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 20 $9 +$6 +61%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $177 $0 -0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 14 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $155 $0 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $171 $0 +0%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 27? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $63 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $105 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $105 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $26 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $107 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $75 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $98 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $107 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $87 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.19 · official $62.23 (match) · 213 history records