Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:47:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2a42…ee8a weather 825 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$923 (-0%) realized −$945 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate79%649W / 172L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$1,654
other 15% +$715
crypto 10% +$120
world 3% −$1
sports 3% +$26
culture 1% +$39
politics 1% +$40
economics 1% +$101
tech 1% −$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 100 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 244 +1.7% -8.0% 95% 9% -10.6%
all 821 -2.5% -11.8% 79% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 18% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 15% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 14% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 12% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$25 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized−$945
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses649 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)821 / 825
History coverage305d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 51¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+95%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 6? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 6? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $200 35h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $250 35h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 35h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $134 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $400 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $39 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $155 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $300 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $115 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 12d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $200 13d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $300 13d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $300 14d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $17 16d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $168 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.75 · official $561.75 (match) · 3336 history records