Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a3e…01f8 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,511 (+30%) realized +$1,521 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$785
7 days+$785
14 days+$785
30 days+$785
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,585
sports 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.2% -18.8% 67% 33% +16.5%
≤30d 3 -10.2% -18.8% 67% 33% +16.5%
≤90d 13 -37.2% -43.2% 23% 15% +23.9%
all 13 -37.2% -43.2% 23% 15% +23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 15% +23.9%
10% -48.6% 15% +12.0%
15% -53.6% 15% +1.2%
20% -58.1% 15% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$818 vs −$96 · ×8.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized+$1,521
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage75d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 58¢ $500 $487 −$12 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,113 +$720 +65%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1,602 +$75 +5%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 13 $372 +$1,660 +447%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.85 · official $889.85 (match) · 22 history records