Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a3d…2068 sports 579 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+0%) realized +$150 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%320W / 231L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,214per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$193
14 days−$25
30 days+$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$1,017
crypto 18% +$569
other 5% −$1,660
sports 4% +$390
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% +$48
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -41.3% -46.9% 21% 21% -47.0%
≤30d 46 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 37% -9.0%
≤90d 222 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 37% -9.8%
all 551 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 42% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 42% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 40% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 40% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 38% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$61 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses320 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions10
Markets (closed)551 / 579
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1,214
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $100 $176 +$76 (+76%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $98 $55 −$43 (-44%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $11 −$39 (-78%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 27¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 +$18 +70%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $26 +$110 +428%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $26 +$50 +197%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$23 +91%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$24 +95%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$22 +88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$25 +99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$20 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$25 +99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$28 +109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2,202 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$30 +122%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $24,811 +$243 +1%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 07 $14 −$13 -93%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $25 +$20 +78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $16 +$15 +94%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $25 +$27 +106%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $4,348 +$9 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $16,243 +$137 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $24,584 +$78 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $35,124 +$101 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$36 +72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $26,088 +$203 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $24,128 +$157 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $10,083 +$14 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $23,950 +$188 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $22,944 +$56 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $3,310 +$190 +6%
Isco: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Sen BUY 28¢ $15 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 15¢ $15 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 22¢ $15 25h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $15 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Paraguay vs. Austra BUY 17¢ $15 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 29¢ $25 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 202 BUY 27¢ $26 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U BUY 19¢ $15 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Colombi BUY 29¢ $26 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway BUY 19¢ $26 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026 BUY 42¢ $25 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $26 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 20¢ $26 6d
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 6d
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $26 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $25 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $26 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $23 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will C BUY 28¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.87 · official $520.87 (match) · 2795 history records