Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a37…cb88 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$121 (-2%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,907
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -59.3% -63.1% 25% 17% -56.2%
≤30d 12 -59.3% -63.1% 25% 17% -56.2%
≤90d 12 -59.3% -63.1% 25% 17% -56.2%
all 12 -59.3% -63.1% 25% 17% -56.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.1% 17% -56.2%
10% ← realistic here -66.7% 17% -60.4%
15% -69.9% 17% -64.2%
20% -72.8% 17% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$462 vs −$477 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $1,469 −$1,400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $626 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $596 −$574 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $416 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $319 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $1,040 +$1,380 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $300 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $722 −$722 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records