Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

2A 0x2a37…08b3 politics 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown75%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-16.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-7.6%	-16.4%	33%	33%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.4%	33%	-8.0%
10%	-24.4%	0%	-16.8%
15%	-31.7%	0%	-24.8%
20%	-38.4%	0%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.33 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage

Net worth$204

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage250d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown75%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$189	$189	−$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	95¢	97¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Jan 08	$15	−$6	-38%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	Nov 14	$49	+$8	+16%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Oct 14	$49	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	1h
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	SELL Yes	54¢	$9	164d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$15	179d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY Yes	88¢	$15	214d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	SELL No	95¢	$12	219d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	SELL No	95¢	$1	220d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	SELL No	95¢	$1	220d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	SELL No	95¢	$1	220d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	SELL No	95¢	$42	220d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	BUY No	82¢	$49	236d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	SELL No	100¢	$49	250d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	BUY No	100¢	$49	250d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.04 · official $204.04 (match) · 12 history records