Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a37…e030 world 116 markets active 2d ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%43W / 71L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$24
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$14
politics 20% $0
other 17% −$1
sports 11% +$7
finance 3% +$10
crypto 1% −$25
tech 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.9% -12.2% 38% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 30 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 44 +44.8% +31.0% 34% 5% -9.6%
all 114 +16.3% +5.2% 38% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -4.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -14.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -22.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses43 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage395d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $290 +$4 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $155 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $140 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $125 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $137 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $159 −$24 -15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $352 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $356 −$2 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $277 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $176 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $298 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $537 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $361 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $178 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $162 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $141 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $335 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $178 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $142 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $14 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $224 −$6 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $355 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $105 +$12 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $85 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $153 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $155 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $145 +$10 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $83 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $510 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $87 −$5 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 24 $95 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $190 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $250 +$8 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,040 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $503 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,038 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $154 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $152 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $152 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $155 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $91 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $129 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $77 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $80 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $140 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $137 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $137 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $93 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $32 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $103 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $159 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $148 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $176 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $162 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $162 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $50 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $111 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records